Six megatrends that could alter the course of sustainable development

We are approaching two years into implementing the ambitious 2030 Agenda – a historic agreement to end poverty, combat inequalities, promote peaceful and inclusive societies, and protect the environment. The new global framework, with 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) at its core, commits to promoting development in an integrated way – economically, socially and environmentally – in all countries, ensuring that no one is left behind.

Our recently published report identifies six megatrends that will shape the trajectories of – and could potentially undermine – progress on the SDGs. In the current context of a looming retreat from multilateralism, the choices governments and societies make to manage these long-term trends will be fundamental to whether the world can get onto a pathway of sustainable development.

1 | Poverty and inequalities

Substantial progress has been achieved in multiple dimensions of poverty in the past decades, including the reduction of absolute poverty, decline in child and maternal mortality rates, and improved access to clean water and sanitation facilities. Income inequality between countries has also been falling, mainly due to the rapid growth in large developing countries.

Despite these gains, the progress has been uneven and considerable challenges remain. These include rising income disparities within countries, persistent gender inequality and the recent resurgence of poverty across regions due to economic shocks and escalating conflicts. The Multidimensional Poverty Index, which measures deprivation in health, education and living standards, counted 1.6 billion people living in multidimensional poverty in 2016 – nearly twice the number of people living in extreme poverty measured by income alone.

Progress towards eliminating poverty is more difficult during times of uncertain economic prospects, the report suggests. This is further complicated by weak labour market conditions, demographic changes, and conflicts and insecurity. Evidence shows that while economic growth is essential for reducing poverty, a critical link between growth and the reduction of poverty and inequalities is related to the nature and quality of growth, and a balanced distribution of gains across all segments of society.

2 | Demography

The implementation of the 2030 Agenda will be affected by demographic dynamics, including population growth, ageing, migration and urbanisation. In 2015, 12.3% of the global population reached the age of 60 or over (pdf), with rapid ageing expected to occur in Europe, North America, Asia and Latin America. In Africa, by contrast, populations are young, which provides an opportunity for a demographic dividend.

It has become easier for people to move, and factors such as poverty, unemployment, conflicts and natural hazards compel people to leave their homes in search of better lives. International migration has reached record levels (pdf), accounting for 244 million migrants worldwide in 2015. If managed well, migration will continue to bring profound benefits to sending countries through remittances, knowledge and networks, and to receiving countries by filling acute labour shortages and contributions in terms of taxes and care services.

Internal migration is also growing, driving fast increases in urbanisation. On one hand, urbanisation fosters growth and provides a higher quality of life, with cities accounting for more than 80% of global GDP (pdf). On the other, it raises concerns about urban poverty, social tensions and disparities, changes in family patterns, and environmental risks.

3 | Environmental degradation and climate change

Major environmental challenges identified by the report include degradation of air and land, water scarcity, deforestation, marine pollution and a decline in biodiversity. Some of the underlying factors behind environmental degradation include population growth, polluting technologies, and overexploitation of ecosystems driven by unsustainable consumption and production patterns.

The first year of SDG implementation was marked by the slowest rate of economic growth since 2008

The world is already witnessing the impact of climate change on natural systems. This is translated into the increasing frequency and severity of natural hazards (pdf), which lead to more disasters due to population growth (pdf) and patterns of economic development. Climate change is also projected to undermine food security, exacerbate existing health threats, adversely affect water availability and lead to increased displacement.

In the coming decades, it is likely that this trend will continue, with more losses expected in livelihoods and assets. This underlines the link between poverty and vulnerability to natural hazards. It also exposes inequity, as countries and populations likely to be most harmed by climate change impacts are often the least responsible for causing them, and have limited capacity and resources to cope with the consequences.

4 | Shocks and crises

The report discusses various shocks and crises including economic and financial shocks, disasters, conflicts and disease outbreaks that have undermined the precarious livelihoods of millions of people and can affect progress towards sustainable development. Over the past decades, global forced displacement, for example, increased by 75% due to conflicts, violence and human rights violations.

The first year of SDG implementation was marked by the slowest rate of economic growth since the 2008 global financial crisis (pdf), weak investment growth and stagnant global trade. While progress has been made in reducing the global unemployment rate, nearly 201 million people worldwide (pdf) were estimated to be unemployed in 2016, including 71 million young people. Global economic prospects remain subject to various risks, including increasing policy uncertainty in major advanced and emerging economies, financial market disruptions and heightened geopolitical tensions.

At the same time, remarkable achievements have been made in combating major infectious diseases and reducing hunger over the past decades, which can be attributed to political commitment, strong global partnerships and sound social protection policies. Despite this, the world continues to face significant challenges in addressing health issues and under-nutrition, with nearly 800 million people suffering from hunger worldwide, and high risks of famine.

5 | Financing for development

To achieve the SDGs, development finance strategies need to go beyond filling financing gaps. While official development assistance will remain a vital source of external public finance for the poorest and most vulnerable countries, it will not be sufficient. All sources of finance – public and private, domestic and international – need to be mobilised. In particular, effective domestic resource mobilisation will be at the core (pdf) of financing sustainable development.

There is no shortage of capital in the global economy

While resources allocated for development objectives are not adequate, there is no shortage of capital in the global economy. The challenge is to enhance the impact of available resources, while catalysing additional sources of finance into investments in long-term sustainable development.

It is critical to better align private sector incentives with sustainable development objectives through strengthened policies and sound institutional, legal and regulatory frameworks. As a positive trend, the private sector’s involvement in philanthropic giving, corporate social responsibility initiatives, impact investing, and inclusive business approaches has been expanding.

A number of innovative multi-stakeholder partnerships such as the Global Fund and new financing mechanisms for development including green bonds have emerged since 2000. It will be essential to scale up the proven mechanisms in size, scope and geographical reach.

6 | Technological innovations

Technology is an important means for implementing the SDGs. The biggest technological advancements over the past decades have occurred in health, education and the environment. For example, the development of new vaccines against infectious diseases is estimated to save nearly 3 million lives every year. Online courses and interactive applications expand access to education around the globe, providing new ways of learning, teaching and collaborative work. Renewable energy technologies are critical in addressing climate change and its negative impacts.

While technologies have provided innovative solutions to many development problems, they have also added new challenges and risks, including security and privacy concerns, polarising opportunities and job replacement. Forecasts suggest that computers could do the work of 140 million knowledge workers by 2025, while 30% of middle-income jobs could be eliminated (pdf) due to innovation in artificial intelligence.

How to move forward?

The multiple crises and disasters in recent decades have highlighted unpredictability and volatility in the global economy, continued uncertainties and disruptions in people’s lives, and the vulnerability of development progress to external shocks. Against this backdrop, there is a challenge – and an opportunity – for a sophisticated policy response of preparedness, investment and cooperation.

The report points to four main factors that are crucial in addressing these trends: the importance of evidence in decision-making; policy coherence across the global goals and at different levels of policymaking and implementation; collective action to maximise the positive dynamics in these areas and minimise risk; and broad-based inclusive participation.

Esuna Dugarova and Nergis Gülasan are policy specialists in the strategic policy unit at the UN Development Programme. Follow @Esuna_Dugarova on Twitter.

Join our community of development professionals and humanitarians. Follow @GuardianGDP on Twitter. Join the conversation with the hashtag #Dev2030.

Six megatrends that could alter the course of sustainable development

1000"s of females consuming as well much in the course of pregnancy, figures recommend

Babies born to mothers who drink heavily for the duration of pregnancy are at danger of creating foetal alcohol syndrome – a lifelong issue that can leave kids physically and mentally disabled.

One particular lady whose son was born with issue mentioned she was given tiny info about the consequences of drinking for the duration of pregnancy regardless of telling the midwife about her years of alcoholism.

Samantha Marchant, forty, from Slough, said: “When I was five months pregnant, I informed the midwife that I was an alcoholic and that I couldn’t handle my drinking.

“They referred me to a drug and alcohol team which place me on a drinks diary … I’d have liked them to say ‘you can have a area in rehab, but it was not supplied.

“I didn’t know about the biology of what transpires if you drink in pregnancy,” Marchant added. “I did not know that my child would be swimming in alcohol. I would have sought aid if I’d have identified.”

Dr. Raja Mukherjee, lead clinician for the nationwide foetal alcohol spectrum disorder clinic at Surrey and Borders Partnership NHS Basis Trust, mentioned Ms Marchant is not alone in continuing to drink for the duration of pregnancy.

“All the analysis has proven that higher level alcohol publicity causes significant damage to a establishing foetus,” she explained.

“We know that women are consuming more … 90% of women in this nation drink and they do not all abruptly cease when they are pregnant.”

1000"s of females consuming as well much in the course of pregnancy, figures recommend

Seaside holidays: Of course it is secure to go back in the water

The barrel species aside, jellyfish are considered accountable for far more stings than any other marine animal in Britain. Stinging species commonly identified here consist of the striking compass jellyfish, so named due to the fact of its V-shaped markings the substantial lion’s mane, which, located on our a lot more northerly shores, has “very strong toxins and is best avoided”, according to Harrington and the minuscule mauve stinger, which has brought on the wholesale closure of some Mediterranean beaches.

Jellyfish stings can be painful but rarely pose a serious risk, says Harrington, who adds that they shouldn’t prevent individuals going into the sea (the NHS guidance is to avoid hugely infested waters). “Our suggestions is in no way to touch them, no matter whether in the sea or stranded on the seashore. They are usually really visible.”

Stings are very best treated with seawater – the salt is believed to deactivate the tiny darts, named nematocysts, inside cells that “fire off” the venom. Peeing on a sting could have worked for Monica from Friends (Chandler did the deed when she was stung) but it is not recommended.

Some scientists consider becoming overrun by jellyfish is a signal of sea pollution, other individuals say it is portion of a natural cycle. “Jellyfish have always been with us,” says Harrington. “Studies above the last 7 or eight many years propose the numbers have risen, but it’s as well early to say for particular.”

Other marine life

The lesser weever fish lies buried in sandy shallows and has sharp spines laced with venom along its dorsal fin stepping on a single can consequence in excruciating discomfort and, sometimes, allergic shock.

The MCS advises sporting jelly shoes in the water – and shuffling your feet whilst strolling by way of the sand to scare away any waiting weevers. If stung, the standard treatment administered by lifeguards is to immerse the foot in water “as hot as you can bear” to deactivate the toxin.

Other stinging species contain stingrays, sea urchins and the Portuguese guy o’ war (not a jellyfish but a floating colony of small creatures known as hydrozoans), which visits our waters only seldom, and usually in south-west Cornwall. Most stings are not severe and can be taken care of with simple initial help (such as ice packs) and tweezers, if any spines are in the skin. Seek out healthcare aid if signs are severe.

Rocks and pools

The hazards posed by marine life are as nothing at all compared to the risks of falls and slips on the rocks. “In some regions where seawater meets freshwater, you get an algae growing on rocks and slipways, which provides them this very slippery surface – like ice,” says Andy Horton, director of the British Marine Life Study Society. “People who dwell by the sea know about this but most other folks do not.

“Kids enjoy rock climbing but dad and mom should be watchful,” he adds.

Sewage

^{Sea pollution in Porthleven, Cornwall (Alamy)}

Sewage straight discharged into the sea can typically lead to infections of the ear, nose and throat, and gastroenteritis, whilst in a case reported in the Isle of Guy last week, a single victim mentioned he had to get 6 months off perform soon after harm to the intestines brought on by coming into get in touch with with raw sewage. Laura Foster, pollution expert at the MCS, says the last 10 to twenty years have noticed large improvements in the quality of British bathing water, with the newest survey designating 73 per cent of our beaches as “excellent”. However, stricter requirements are due to exchange the recent ones, primarily based on an EU bathing water directive from 1976, subsequent 12 months, and might see some beaches downgraded.

To minimise the threat of swimming in polluted water, select a Blue Flag beach or consult the MCS Good Beach Manual, available on the internet (www.mcsuk.org).

Quick-term pollution soon after hefty rain, triggered by run-offs from streets and farmland, as properly as stormwater overflows, is even now a issue in many regions. “As a basic rule we advise towards going in the sea for a excellent 24 hrs soon after hefty rainfall,” says Harrington.

Troubles in water

This is the most severe chance posed by the sea, with seven,000 folks acquiring into difficulty yearly. Dickon Berriman, a lifeguard manager on the Cornish coast, says the most widespread cause of difficulties are rip currents – robust bodies of water working out to sea that sweep swimmers out beyond their depth.

“You can typically see a dark ribbon of water indicating where rip currents are, or discoloured water where the sand is churned up,” he says. “The best way to keep secure is to swim on a lifeguarded beach between the flags indicated, obey security indications and by no means swim alone. If you get into difficulties, remain calm, stick your hand in the air and shout for help.”

It is also crucial to be conscious of the tide, which can come in surprisingly speedily. The site of the Royal Nationwide Lifeboat Institution (rnli.org) also has security suggestions on waves, inflatables, surfing and bodyboarding. Of tombstoning (jumping in feet-first from a height), Berriman says: “It is not new children have often carried out it. But it’s hazardous simply because you do not know what’s beneath the surface or if the water is shallow. If you are interested do it securely with an organised business.”

He adds that final winter’s storms will have modified the make-up of several seashores in the South West, which can catch out the unwary. “Some sand dunes have been washed away, leaving great sand cliffs which are at danger of collapsing, so dad and mom must hold their kids away.”

Also considerably sun

A survey final 12 months showed that when the sun does come out in Britain, we are less likely to apply sunscreen than when abroad – and beachgoers could be much more vulnerable than most to the sun’s dangerous rays. “Shade can be hard to locate on the seaside, individuals are keen to get their garments off, and sunscreen washes off in the sea,” says Greg Jones from Cancer Research Uk.

On the seashore or off, the advice is the identical: commit time in the shade or cover up among 11am and 3pm, and reapply sunscreen (with a minimum factor 15) often.

Insect bites and stings

If a wasp is interested in your ice cream, really don’t try out to swat it – move calmly out of its way. Wasps and other stinging insects like bright colors, so dress in neutrals and keep away from using robust scents. Insect repellent can avert bites from mosquitoes and horseflies, which are found in some coastal places. If you do get stung or bitten, ice packs and painkillers can assist a bee sting demands getting rid of. Wasp stings lead to much more allergic reactions than individuals of any other insect and might require immediate medical aid.

Sharks

^{Very unlikely: ‘Jaws’ (Moviestore/Rex)}

Overlook the Jaws films: few of the 30-odd species of shark identified off Britain are interested in humans, with only two unprovoked shark attacks recorded in England since 1847. Nevertheless, adds Ali Hood from the Shark Believe in, if you spot a single, “these are large, powerful animals and you ought to hold a respectful distance”.

But really do not be put off…

Richard Harrington says that, regardless of the hazards, British beaches are amongst the most lovely in the globe. “We advise that as several folks as attainable make use of our splendid coastline.”

Seaside holidays: Of course it is secure to go back in the water

In the course of treatment, I realise I will not know myself very well

‘I’m searching my thoughts frantically for truthful answers, but I cannot believe of a single, strong purpose.’

As I share the back seat of a taxi with my buddy after a night out, it strikes me that we could kiss and it would most most likely be good. She is lovely and I’ve kissed females before, and it has not manufactured me question my sexuality due to the fact I am certain that I fancy guys far more than women – though that could adjust.

But when it comes to other matters, I realise that I never know myself so effectively.

“What is it that you want from this?” the therapist asks me, about future hopes for my romantic relationship with R.

I really feel like I’m a contestant on Mastermind and I have to ask her to repeat the question: it isn’t complicated or delivered in a method that is trying to catch me out. Talking about what I want from a connection is stuff I know, absolutely. She’s not quizzing me about the signing of the Magna Carta, or the history of silent film.

“I do not really know.”

I am seeking my mind frantically for truthful solutions, but I cannot believe of a single, strong cause. Not since the emotions for R aren’t there, but due to the fact I’m unable to speak about what it is that I want. If I have been creating an essay, I’d skirt around the central situation and speak about why I first received together with him: to see if I could fall in adore with a person who said he loved me first to share the obligation of bringing up my daughter and possibly have more kids with each other to discover how far a relationship could exist past a one particular-evening stand.

Getting asked to express need, want and want is not as effortless as it sounds. I thought I knew myself properly and but if I had to sit an exam on the topic now I consider I’d stumble at the 1st query. My grownup many years have been defined by motherhood and marriage, and I do not believe I’ve rebelled at all right up until just lately because becoming carried along with all that duty and duty had offered me a false sense of security, made me passive to modify.

How I react to a person’s behaviour – or scenario – has informed how my lifestyle has rolled on. As a mom I have been the carer. As a wife I have attempted to management, to keep factors tidy. For several years I primarily based decisions not on how I felt, but on how other people reacted. I never truly wished to have to analyse my emotions about something I desired option to lie in other people’s hands. Now I can see why it is difficult to know what I want at all.

“And what would you like to request your wife?” the therapist says to R.

This question is different, but R only pauses for a 2nd prior to answering. He appears me in the eye, which is rare.

“I’d like you to end interfering. For example, when I talk to the kids or if I tell them off, you consider to tell me how ideal to deal with them. You seldom just let me get on with currently being a father in the way that I want to be a father, and typically you treat me like a kid.”

I want to reply back with a “how dare you!” but realise that what he’s saying is totally fair. R normally likes  to shy away from confrontation, make everyone feel like he is in the incorrect all the time. I am strangely exhilarated by his sense of injustice since for when he’s standing up for himself.

Next time we check out the therapist, I want to be ready to offer at least a single reply to her query. Definitely I want all the items that everybody needs: love, safety and companionship. But for myself? A bit more self-expertise would not go amiss, nonetheless abstract that might sound.

Last week, I needed to be dragged, to get drunk, to be taken anyplace but house. At the finish of the evening, of program, I had to go property. In my thoughts, the zenith of romance in existence has usually been about an individual taking my hand and top me away from the items I just do not want to face.

All the adult duties that have frightened me – from seeking at my bank statements to dealing with authority – have basically been manifestations of my inability to look at myself.

It’s this kind of a uninteresting thing to have to do, to enter into such existential – occasionally selfish – territory. I’d much rather commit my days getting to know other individuals and admire their strengths and scrutinise their faults as a way of passing the time. It is exciting for a while to define myself against folks and spots and items to be taken along for the trip, no matter what the consequences. But that’s not a sustainable way to live any much more.

In the course of treatment, I realise I will not know myself very well

Acetaminophen In the course of Pregnancy May Be Linked To ADHD In Youngsters

Acetaminophen has been accumulating some evidence towards its regimen use in current many years, and now there could be much more: The drug, if utilised during pregnancy, may raise the threat of habits difficulties in the children years later on. The authors of the new study, out in the journal JAMA Pediatrics, say it’s as well early to make any new suggestions for the public just however. But given that the final results do propose that prenatal use could as significantly as double the threat of habits problems in the child, pregnant women might want to get the study into consideration, or speak with their medical doctors.

The research followed more than 64,000 households in the Danish Nationwide Birth Cohort. The mothers filled out questionnaires relating to the frequency of their acetaminophen use in the course of pregnancy, and answered inquiries about a variety of aspects of their children’s conduct. Official diagnoses of hyperkinetic disorder (HKD), a significant kind of ADHD, had been tracked, as effectively as the quantity of prescriptions for ADHD medications (e.g. Ritalin).

Just more than half the girls taking element in the examine utilized acetaminophen in the course of pregnancy.

Use of the drug was strongly linked to enhanced risk for ADHD in the young children in the 1st 7 years of lifestyle, an improve of as a lot as 30%. Acetaminophen was also linked to a 37% higher threat for having an HKD diagnosis. And the more typically the pregnant mothers utilised the drug, the greater their children’s chance of behavioral difficulties.

“When women reported possessing utilised acetaminophen for 20 or a lot more weeks throughout pregnancy, the risk for HKD diagnosis in kids almost doubled,” the authors compose. And the odds of the kids getting prescribed an ADHD medicine rose by 50%.

The final results held up even when elements like maternal mental overall health, inflammation, and infection during pregnancy had been accounted for.

Acetaminophen can cross the placenta, generating its way to the  fetus and its delicate building nervous technique. The drug is a acknowledged endocrine (hormone) disrupter, and has previously been linked to undescended testes in male infants. Because the maternal hormone setting plays a crucial role in the growth of the fetus, the authors say that it is “possible that acetaminophen may interrupt brain development by interfering with maternal hormones or by means of neurotoxicity this kind of as the induction of oxidative tension that can cause neuronal death.”

All this mentioned, causation cannot be established from the recent research – there is only a correlation between a mother’s acetaminophen use and behavioral/focus problems in the youngster. So there could be one more factor or multiple elements at perform, which haven’t been teased apart however. And behavioral and focus difficulties are very likely to have several leads to, the two genetic and environmental. For these causes, the authors say that it is too early to make any specific recommendations for pregnant girls just yet.

But, they include, if causation ought to some day be demonstrated, then “acetaminophen ought to no longer be regarded a protected drug for use in pregnancy.”

The authors of an accompanying editorial also level out that the outcomes “underline the importance of not taking a drug’s security in the course of pregnancy for granted.” Far more study, they urge, will definitely be necessary to handle the remaining inquiries.

In the meantime, if you’re concerned, it may possibly be smart to reduce down on acetaminophen if you’re pregnant – it undoubtedly shouldn’t be employed routinely or for long intervals. But speak with your doctor if you have questions about this, or any medicines, you’re taking.

Comply with me @alicewalton or uncover me on Facebook.

Acetaminophen In the course of Pregnancy May Be Linked To ADHD In Youngsters

Consuming alcohol in the course of pregnancy could be ruled a crime

However, the Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority challenged the judgment, and it was overturned in December by the upper tribunal of the Administrative Appeals Chamber.

Judge Howard Levenson discovered that there had been “administration of a poison or other destructive or noxious thing, so as therefore to inflict grievous bodily harm”.

However, he concluded that the lady was “not a person” in legal terms at the time due to the fact she was nonetheless a foetus.

The judge added: “I conclude that the segment 23 offence can not be committed by a pregnant woman drinking alcohol during her pregnancy and therefore leading to damage to her unborn child and that, in the present case, no proof or argument has been provided in respect of the commission of any other offence.”

Now the council in north-west England which brought the unique application for compensation on behalf of the woman, who is now in foster care, is getting ready to consider the situation to the Court of Appeal, The Sunday Instances reported.

Neil Sugarman, a managing spouse at GLP Solicitors in Greater Manchester, who is handling the situation, told the paper: “Sadly, we act for numerous, many kids who have been damaged by excessive alcohol consumption in the course of pregnancy. We had been approached by a neighborhood authority with accountability for a youngster quite badly damaged as a consequence of foetal alcohol spectrum disorder.

“They considered creating an application under the criminal injuries compensation scheme simply because they believed there was an argument that the youngster had been damaged by becoming victim of a crime. The crime currently being the birth mother carrying on consuming realizing that it could damage the kid.”

He added: “In all the circumstances we have, there is excellent evidence that warnings have been offered either by social workers or treating consultants and nurses to say, ‘you are not able to go on carrying out this, you are going to damage your child’.”

Consuming alcohol in the course of pregnancy could be ruled a crime

Kids of mothers who drink alcohol in the course of pregnancy "better behaved"

Janni Niclasen, a psychologist at the University of Copenhagen, analysed outcomes from a prolonged-phrase review of a lot more than 100,000 pregnant Danes who have been asked about their consuming routines.

She mentioned: “My study displays, between other items, that the young children of mothers who drank small quantities of alcohol — 90 units or much more — during their pregnancies display drastically better emotional and behavioural outcomes at age 7 compared to kids of mothers who did not drink at all.

“At first sight this helps make no sense, considering that alcohol throughout pregnancy is not seen as useful to kid behaviour.

“But when you seem at the way of life of the mothers, you locate an explanation.

“Mothers who drank 90 units or far more of alcohol turn out to be the most nicely-educated and [have the] healthiest lifestyle all round.”

Ninety units of alcohol is the equivalent of a glass of wine a week, or a bottle a month. Ms Niclasen also warned that psychological elements likely to have an affect on children, this kind of as attachment and intelligence, had been not incorporated in the examine. Neither did the survey appear at what happened to the children of women who drank much more immoderately.

She explained that “this is not an invitation to pregnant ladies to drink alcohol”.

Janet Fyle, professional policy adviser at the Royal School of Midwives, mentioned that critiques of the proof had repeatedly concluded that alcohol was dangerous during pregnancy. She explained: “We get properly adjusted kids by paying out attention to them when they are youthful.

“You do not get nicely-adjusted young children by drinking alcohol throughout pregnancy.”

Kids of mothers who drink alcohol in the course of pregnancy "better behaved"