NHS could face its worst January as it struggles with festive backlog, warns doctor

The NHS is facing “potentially the worst January” ever as it struggles to deal with the backlog of patients occupying beds over Christmas, a leading doctor has warned.

Dr Mark Holland, president of the Society for Acute Medicine (SAM), said hospitals had already seen large numbers of elderly patients over the festive period and that the health service was on the brink of a major crisis.

Holland, who is based in Manchester, said hospitals were operating under a “false sense of security” as elective procedures dipped during the Christmas period with those beds becoming available for emergency patients.

Once routine operations start up regularly this week, hospitals must make these allocated beds available again. A bout of flu, the winter vomiting virus, or even a cold snap, could prove the tipping point, he warned.

He said the service was going to face the health equivalent of the “credit card bill from hell” after the festive period and called on the government to announce its contingency plans for a “possible worst-case scenario”.

Holland, who leads the national body for acute hospital staff, told the Press Association: “There’s this problem over Christmas and New Year where actually, because you get this glut of beds that become available, you’re just building trouble up for ourselves in January.

“And then … when the flu kicks in, if the winter vomiting virus kicks in, which would potentially close a ward, or if there’s just a cold snap – when any of these things occur we will be under more pressure, but actually we’ll still be spending most of January trying to clear the Christmas and New Year backlog.”

This year January could be “one of the worst we have faced” due to record numbers of elderly patients who cannot be discharged because they are waiting for social care, he said.

Using an analogy of Christmas spending Dr Holland said it was down to the balance of beds within hospitals. “Imagine, at the end of January, we are going to get our credit card bill for Christmas,” he said.

“However, this January its like we’ve not paid last month’s credit card bill, we’ve not paid November’s credit bill, and over Christmas we’ve gone out and had a really good spend. The credit card bill we are going to get from January is just the credit card bill from hell … it’s going to be the worst ever credit card bill for the NHS.”

There were currently “too many unknowns to tell us if we will be able to get through January and avert a major crisis”, he added.

NHS could face its worst January as it struggles with festive backlog, warns doctor