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23 Eylül 2016 Cuma

Why can’t our leaders learn from 30 years of failure in health and education? | John Quiggin

The inadequacy of competition and the profit motive in the provision human services like education and health has been established by harsh experience with consistent failures like PFI hospitals, for-profit schools and private prisons. This failure presents a puzzle: how is it that (assuming we have an adequate income) we can rely on for-profit corporations to put food on our tables and clothes on our backs, but not to educate our children or preserve our health.


In the hands of many advocates of privatisation, this puzzle is turned into a knock-down refutation: if the profit motive works well in providing something as vital as food, it must work well everywhere. The latest instance of this naive faith in the market is the Australian Productivity Commission’s call to privatise public health and housing.


In fact, there is no puzzle here: economists and public policy scholars worked out decades ago how to answer this question in principle, and solved many of the issues in detail. The problem is that the political class, along with much of the economics profession, have done worse than the Bourbons, of whom Talleyrand observed “they have learned nothing, and forgotten nothing”. Leading economist Paul Romer recently observed, echoing earlier comments by Robert Gordon, that macroeconomics has been going backwards since the early 1980s.


The same is true of the regressive microeconomics underlying the dogma that privatisation and market competition are always and everywhere beneficial. Our leaders, and the economists who advise them, have shown themselves incapable of learning from experience, but they have forgotten much that we once knew. In this case, what we once knew was the analysis of market failure that supported the successful mixed economy that came into being in the mid-20th century.


The basic analytical framework was set out in Francis Bator’s 1958 article, “The anatomy of market failure”, (itself drawing on earlier work by the great British economist AC Pigou). It was developed further by a string of contributions from economists like Kenneth Arrow, Joseph Stiglitz and George Akerlof, all of whom received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for their work.


Taken together with Keynesian macroeconomic theory, this body of work explained why a properly functioning modern economy must be one in which some goods and services are provided by firms competing for profit and others by governments or publicly-funded non-profit organisations. The result is the “mixed economy”, political and social aspects of which were analysed by scholars such as Karl Mannheim and Andrew Shonfield.


Human services are among the sectors of the economy where markets and competition perform badly. The central problems related to human services involve information and finance. These are most obvious in relation to education. Education is for most of us, a once-only experience, and its value is hard to assess, except in retrospect. To some extent, we can make choices on the basis of the reputation of schools and universities. However, these reputations change only slowly over decades, so slowly that no rational for-profit firm would invest in maintaining them.


Moreover, education is hugely expensive, so that most families can’t afford it in the absence of public provision or a public subsidy. The experience of for-profit education in Australia and the US has been that it is far easier to extract public subsidies through scams of various kinds than to compete on the basis of high-quality education.


Many of the same issues arise in healthcare. Obviously, if we knew what was wrong with our health and how to fix it, we wouldn’t need doctors to tell us. As it is, we need to rely on the judgment of our doctors to give us the right treatment and, equally importantly, to tell us when we will get better without treatment. The greater the role of profit in the system, the greater the incentive to provide unnecessary or overpriced services. The example of the United States, which spends more on healthcare than any other country, with worse results, is an illustration.


Information isn’t a problem, or not much of one, in the case of food supply. We buy food on a weekly or even daily basis and have plenty of chances to determine what we like, and which suppliers offer good value for our money. There are things we can’t easily observe, like the cleanliness of food preparation, but these can be dealt with through regulation rather than through governments getting into the food supply business themselves.


Of course, none of this helps if you don’t have enough money to afford the food you need. But long experience has shown that the best way to help poor people afford necessities like food is to give them more money. Neither general food subsidies nor welfare payments tied to food purchases (food stamps) have ever worked as well as income redistribution.


If markets and profits don’t work well in the provision of human services, why should we expect governments and non-profit organisations to do any better? The answer is that that non-profit provision relies on professionalism and a service ethos. These can’t be combined with reliance on direct financial incentives and managerial control.


The Bourbons who have dominated public policy for the past few decades are resolutely hostile to any kind of professional or service ethos. They take for granted the most simplistic versions of textbook economics, in which only monetary incentives matter. On a more sophisticated view of the question, people care just as much about the respect of their peers and belief in the value of their work as they do about the size of their pay packet.


This is ultimately an empirical question, and after 30 years of failure we have more than enough evidence to reach a conclusion. Across the human services sector, markets, incentives and competition rarely work better than non-profit provision and frequently lead to disastrous failure.



Why can’t our leaders learn from 30 years of failure in health and education? | John Quiggin

12 Eylül 2016 Pazartesi

Face the facts: competition and profit don"t work in health, education or prisons | John Quiggin

Following a long series of unsuccessful attempts at developing a workable lightbulb, Thomas Edison is supposed to have said, “I’ve not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” This quote comes irresistibly to mind when thinking about Tony Blair’s famous commitment to “what works”, as opposed to ideology, in public policy.


In retrospect, it seems that Blair, and like-minded reformers throughout the English-speaking world, have delivered an Edison in reverse. Edison experimented with many things that didn’t work, but ended up with a light bulb. Market-oriented reforms, particularly in the provision of human services like health, education and public safety, have begun with a working system and replaced it with a string of failed experiments.


Here are a few examples from recent news stories around the English-speaking world


These examples could be multiplied endlessly, and not as the result of a selective choice of reports. A Google search on terms like “PFI hospital” or “private vocational training” will produce dozens more reports, nearly all describing financial and human disasters.


Yet despite this string of disasters, the push for market-oriented reform goes on. In the US, the Obama administration continues to promote the failed idea of charter schools, and Obama allies like Rahm Emanuel have carried on the war against teacher unions. The conservatives in Britain have backed away from the worst failures of the PFI. However, they are still enamoured of other Blair ideas like converting local authority schools into “academies” despite the absence of any evidence of improved performance.


Even by comparison with these examples, the Baird government in NSW stands out. It is pushing ahead with the privatisation agenda in Tafe, despite the obviously disastrous nature of the results. It has outsourced teaching in prisons to companies whose staff lack teaching degrees.


Not content with that, the Baird government is outsourcing the provision of public housing. The likely winner, despite its failures here and abroad, is Serco, a firm prominent as both a beneficiary of, and advocate for, outsourcing of human services.


The Australian policy elite seem immune to evidence on the failures of markets in human services. The recent Harper review of competition policy in Australia suggested that, “Consumer choice should be placed at the heart of government service delivery, through policies to encourage diverse and competitive markets populated with innovative and responsive providers.”


But it is precisely the firms lauded as “innovative” and “responsive”, from the University of Phoenix to the shonky builders of PFI schools and hospitals, that have done most to hurt government service programs.


Sooner or later the advocates of reform will have to answer the Edison-Blair question: “What works?” And what works is traditional public provision. Through all of these failed experiments, the public sector, much-maligned and chronically underfunded, has carried on with the hard work of educating young people, treating the sick and providing the vast range of services needed in a modern society, on a the basis of an ethic of service to the entire community, and not merely those who can pay for premium service.


The only other model with comparable success is not-for-profit provision by organisations with a charitable or service mission. Church-run schools and hospitals, and activist-run services like women’s shelters and services for the unemployed and homeless, have complemented the public sector, meeting needs that have been unrecognised or underserved.


The issue is not, in the end, one of public versus private. Rather it is the fact that market competition and the profit motive inevitably associated with it is antithetical to the professional and service orientation that is central to human services of all kinds.


No matter how cleverly market reformers design incentive schemes, competition for profits will always find a way to subvert them. It is time we as a society recognised this, and returned to what actually works.



Face the facts: competition and profit don"t work in health, education or prisons | John Quiggin