Is smoking escalating in Australia?

The front page of the Australian claims Labor’s plain packaging laws have failed, as industry research exhibits a small enhance in tobacco revenue volume in between 2012 and 2013.

So, do the figures back up the Australian’s declare?

First of all, it truly is really worth examining the business information presented in the Australian’s report.

The important number they depend on is an increase in tobacco sales from 21.015bn in 2012 to 21.074bn in 2013*. Labor’s plain packaging laws had been totally implemented in December 2012.

Even though this is a modest .28% boost in revenue yr on year, they have failed to account for the increase in the population in between 2012 and 2013.

Adjusted for population, tobacco revenue per person have actually continued to lessen from 920.four in 2012 to 906.9 in 2013:

Even more, buried at the finish of the article is another figure from British American Tobacco Australia spokesman Scott McIntyre:

“From 2008 to 2012 smoking incidence, or the variety of men and women smoking, was declining at an regular fee of 3.3% a 12 months,” he mentioned, pointing to Roy Morgan information.

“Since plain packaging was introduced, that decline fee slowed to 1.four%.”

So in their very own report they have pointed out that the real rate of smoking is continuing to decline. That is, the variety of individuals smoking has decreased from 2012 to 2013.

Mixed with the business sales figures, all this suggests is that less men and women are smoking, but smokers could be purchasing slightly more tobacco.

These figures are at odds with the most current details from the ABS.

As Stephen Koukoulas factors out, the latest ABS figures on family expenditure present as of March 2014, consumption of tobacco is the lowest it has ever been because 1959 when it 1st started to be recorded. Here is a graph of said home expenditure, helpfully presented by Ketan Joshi.

The ABS national wellness survey has not however covered the plain packaging time period, but once again, the extended-phrase trend is downwards.

However we are unable to examine the approaches of the ABS to the study entire body, InfoView, that presented the tobacco revenue numbers as they’ve declined to release the total dataset.

The Australian also cites figures from the NSW population overall health survey exhibiting a rise in smoking among 2011 (14.7% of all grownups) and 2013 (16.four% of all grownups). Nonetheless between 2012, when plain packaging was launched, and 2013, the figures for smoking in NSW truly display a modest decline from 17.1% down to 16.4%:

Statistically it really is probably that 2012 and 2013 are in fact indistinguishable due to the sample dimension, and the leap from 2011 to 2012 is truly due to a modify in methodology, as the NSW overall health division site says.

“In 2012 mobile phones were incorporated in the survey strategies for the 1st time and this enhanced the number of younger individuals and males in the survey sample. Each of these groups have comparatively higher smoking rates, leading to a greater overall reported rate of current smoking. The charge for 2013 has stabilised.”

From 2002 to 2011, where the strategies change, the long-phrase trend in smoking is downwards.

*Even though the Australian’s graph showed 21.015m and 21.074m for 2012 and 2013 respectively, I have been advised this should actually be in billions.

Is smoking escalating in Australia?